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Selasa, 13 September 2011

Current CAD Trading Plans

Forex Forum


View RSS Feed by on Yesterday at 09:13 PM (9 Views)

We are looking for CAD strength, likely after the CAD news.

EUR/CAD – this pair is oscillating on the D1 time frame and could drop from here with plenty of potential, check it for sell signals in the main session, it has some layers of support down to 1.4000.

GBP/CAD – this pair is in a D1 time frame down trend. Set sell alarm at 1.5925, plenty of room to drop below here.

CAD/CHF – set buy alarm at 0.8415, some minor spikes of resistance then room to move up to about 0.8600

When the price alarms hit verify any buys or sell entries with The Forex Heatmap ™ and look for CAD strength or cross currency weakness both.

Good Trading
Mark Mc Donnell
http://www.forexearlywarning.com/
Spot Forex Trading Plans Across 28 Currency Pairs
$19.95 per month

forexheatmap's Avatar Join DateFeb 2010Posts0Blog Entries44Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.


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Senin, 12 September 2011

|FXReturn.com|London Forex Market Call 8-31-11|

Forex Forum


Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.


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Daily FX Market Outlook by AceTrader-31-8-2011

Market Review - 30/08/2011 22:00 GMT

Euro tanks on poor EU data and bond auction in Italy

The single currency tumbled on Tuesday as weak EU data and disappointing demand at Italy's bond auction prompted investors to sell euro.

Although the single currency edged higher to 1.4533 at Asian midday following Monday's rise to a near 2-month high of 1.4550, failure to re-test this resistance caused price to retreat at European open, the pair tumbled sharply to 1.4385 due to weaker-than-expected EU data together with the widening bond yield spread (Italian/German 10-year government bond yield spread rose above 300 basis points, the highest since ECB started buying the bonds) but later pared its losses on rumours the ECB bought significant amount of Italian 10-year bonds. Euro eventually recovered to 1.4465 in NY afternoon after the release of FOMC minutes.

The single currency was pressured as Italy sold 7.7 billion euros ($11.1 billion) of debt, including 3.75 billion euros of 10-year bonds, with the average yield of 5.22%, down from a yield of 5.77% in July. The auction was disappointing as bids for the 10-year supply exceeded the amount on offer by just 1.27 times.

EU economic and consumer sentiment were worse than expected, coming in at 98.3, the lowest since May 2010, and -16.5 vs forecasts of 100.5 and -12.0 respectively whilst EU business climate and industrial sentiment in Aug came in at 0.07 and -2.9 vs forecasts of 0.15 and -1.5 respectively.

FOMC minutes for August showed most members agreed economic outlook had deteriorated enough to warrant a response and some wanted more substantial action. They discussed a range of tools reinforcing forward guidance such as asset purchases and increasing the average maturity of the Fed's balance sheet.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback fell sharply from Australian high at 76.97 to 76.66 in European morning due to broad-based selling of yen. Despite dollar's recovery to 76.89, the pair dropped again to 76.61 on the worse-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence (44.5 vs forecast of 52.0 and the previous figure of 59.2) before stabilising.

Although the British pound ratcheted higher to 1.6419 at Asian midday, cable tumbled sharply in tandem with euro to an intra-day low of 1.6255 before rebounding to 1.6318 in NY afternoon on short-covering after the release of FOMC minutes.

Data to be released on Wednesday include:

U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, Japan manufacturing PMI, industrial production, construction orders, housing starts, New Zealand NBNZ business confidence, Australia private-sector credit, Germany retail sales, unemployment rate, Unemployment change, EU HICP flash, unemployment rate, Canada GDP, U.S. ADP unemployment rate, Chicago PMI, factory orders, durable goods.

http://www.acetraderfx.com


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S.Korea-Market Factors to watch Aug 31

SEOUL, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Following is a list of events in

South Korea as well as news stories and press reports which may

influence financial markets. (Reuters News welcomes your

feedback and for any queries, please contact the Seoul newsroom

at +822 3704 5640 or via email at kr.rtrs@gmail.com)

WHAT IS HAPPENING IN KOREA (Times local, GMT +9 hrs)

>South Korean President Lee Myung-bak due to conduct a partial

cabinet reshuffle under which the unification minister is widely

expected to be removed

>South Korea July industrial output 0800

>SK Telecom holds meeting to approve decision to

spin off platform operation 0900

REUTERS NEWS

>Samsung unveils 3 smartphones to run own platforM

>Hyundai E&C wins $1.5 bln deal in Vietnam

>S.Korea KOMIP seeks 490,000 T coal for Oct-Dec

MARKETS

>Seoul shares up for 4th session

>S.Korea won rises but checked ahead of output data

MARKET SNAPSHOTS

*Seoul shares extended gains on Tuesday, with foreign investors

turning net buyers after a bank merger deal in Greece and

positive U.S. consumer spending data lifted sentiment.

* U.S. stocks rose for a third straight day on Tuesday in a

volatile session, after minutes from the latest Federal Reserve

meeting boosted expectations the U.S. central bank will act

again to stimulate the economy.

* Brent crude rose for a sixth straight session to a four-week

high on Tuesday, boosted by concerns about gasoline supplies,

optimism about fresh economic stimulus and the threat of fresh

storms.

*Gold, oil and bonds surged on Tuesday while Wall Street

rebounded in choppy trade after the latest Federal Reserve

minutes boosted expectations policymakers will act again to try

to stimulate the economy.

IN THE KOREAN PRESS

Following is a summary of local press reports translated by

Reuters. Reuters has not verified the content of these reports

and does not vouch for their accuracy.

>POSCO has agreed to invest 480 billion won ($447.9

million) to increase annual production of nickel with joint

venture partner SMSP by 54,000 tonnes.

Latest KR stock report Latest money report

Latest stocks KR press digest

KR main diary KR IPO diary

Global Markets report Oil Markets report

New York Stocks Asia stock outlook

Emerging markets report

($1 = 1071.700 Korean Won)

(Seoul Newsroom; Editing by Jonathan Hopfner)

Keywords: KOREA FACTORS/

(seoul.newsroom@reuters.com)(+822 3704 5649)

COPYRIGHT

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The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.


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INSTANT VIEW 3-S.Korea July output drops, misses fcasts

SEOUL, Aug 31 (Reuters) - South Korea's industrial production in July fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent from June, data showed on Wednesday, missing market expectations and adding to concerns about sputtering economic growth.

On the year, industrial output -- which covers manufacturing and mining production -- also grew a slower-than-expected 3.8 percent in July, Statistics Korea said in a statement.

**********************************************************

KEY POINTS:

- For full story, double-click

- For full table, double-click

- Reuters poll forecasts: July industrial production was seen up a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent from June and up 6.5 percent from a year earlier.

COMMENTARY:

HWANG SOO-HO, BOND ANALYST, DAISHIN SECURITIES

'The data seems to underscore growing downside risks to our economy along with concerns about slowing global economic growth and a subsequent drop in exports.'

'Economic indicators could worsen further in August to reflect the U.S. rating downgrade early this month and weak U.S. data, though the composite leading indicator today showed quickening annual growth.'

IM NOJUNG, CHIEF ECONOMIST, SOLOMON INVESTMENTS

'We believe the central bank rate raising cycle has ended for this year, and if economic pressure increases we are expecting a rate cut within this year.'

'Although the employment rate is improving, it is not enough to bring up consumption with the burden of household debt.'

'Exports and production for the second half are expected to slow down.'

KIM HYO-JIN, ECONOMIST, DONGBU SECURITIES

'I think it is time to lower our expectations on exports given the widened volatility in markets and concerns over another recession.'

'Domestic demand is broadly linked to exports here and looks like it's slowing a bit, considering tightening moves on household lending.'

'With so many changes in August, the central bank will keep rates steady in September again. It needs to take into account recent market situations and step back from its previous stance of raising rates.'

MARKET REACTION:

- The data was released before local financial markets opened.

LINKS:

- Full statement in Korean from Statistics Korea at http://www.kostat.go.kr

- Historical data available at the statistics agency's database at http://kosis.kr

- For all South Korean news and data, 3000 Xtra users can double-click on

BACKGROUND:

- Confidence among top South Korean companies tumbled to its lowest level in almost two and a half years on concerns about a global double-dip slump and heavy household debt, a business lobby group's monthly survey showed on Monday.

- South Korea's short-term foreign borrowings shrank by the sharpest pace in eight months in July, decreasing by $5.05 billion on the month, following a series of capital flow measures aimed at shielding the country from global jitters.

(Reporting by Kim Yeonhee, Ju-min Park and Taeyi Kim; Editing by Jonathan Hopfner) Keywords: KOREA ECONOMY/OUTPUT

(yeonhee.kim@thomsonreuters.com)(+822 3704 5646)(Reuters Messaging: yeonhee.kim.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)

COPYRIGHT

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The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.


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RPT-UPDATE 3-Airlifts, water rescues in wake of Hurricane Irene

By Grant McCool

PATERSON, N.J., Aug 30 (Reuters) - Emergency workers

plucked dozens of residents from doorways and windows as

Hurricane Irene's floodwaters rose on Tuesday, swallowing

homes, submerging cars and turning the streets of this working

class town into lakes.

While Hurricane Irene's paralyzing rampage through the U.S.

Northeast largely spared New York City, it caused the worst

flooding in decades in inland areas of New York state, New

Jersey and Vermont. The storm has been blamed for the deaths of

about 40 people.

Search and rescue teams working in Paterson, New Jersey

have pulled nearly 600 people from homes in recent days with

the most intense efforts on Tuesday when the Passaic River

measured 13 feet (4 metres) above flood stage, the highest

level since 1903, said Paterson police Sgt. Alex Popov.

Firefighters rescued some by boat and the National Guard

saved others by truck, taking them to a Red Cross shelter.

'Some are standing there in the doorway. Some are coming

out of their windows,' Popov said.

'It's raging,' he said of the Passaic, which runs through

the center of town, about 20 miles (32 kilometers) outside New

York City.

Along the banks of the swollen, rushing brown river,

residents sought to save what they could from homes submerged

in waist-high water. Others stood along the river's edge,

snapping pictures of the devastation.

'I'm from this area and this is the worst that I've seen

here, the farthest up this water has come,' said Peter Hennen,

63, who traveled from south Jersey to help his son, a homeowner

in Paterson, rig up pumps to remove water.

'Everybody thought the (Jersey) shore was going to be

devastating,' he said. 'But people here forgot about the media

telling them the storm's 500 miles wide, so the rest of Jersey

got hit.'

Authorities expected the river to begin receding later on

Tuesday.

Clear skies in the U.S. northeast aided rescue efforts, but

hundreds of thousands of homes were damaged, some swept away by

rivers already swollen by an unusually wet summer.

Irene hit North Carolina as a hurricane and moved north

over major East Coast cities, then weakened to a tropical storm

over New England and dissipated after tracking into Canada.

Some of the worst damage was not along the coast, but in

towns located inland.

In Vermont, officials planned to airlift food and water to

towns cut off by the floodwaters. Some 260 Vermont roads

remained closed and the state was beginning to deploy crews of

workers, backed up by the National Guard, to repair them.

Vermonters already beaten down by the prolonged U.S.

economic slump saw homes and cars washed away, and were then

faced with washed out roads that complicated their recovery

from the state's worst flooding in more than 80 years.

'Economically, I'm devastated,' said Betsey Reagan, owner

of Dot's Diner in West Dover, Vermont. 'Who knows what is going

to happen? ... We'll miss the (autumn) foliage season, who

knows what the winter is going to be like? Tourists can't come

if the roads aren't open.'

The timing of the storm, at the end of summer and before

the Labor Day holiday weekend, was particularly troubling for

business owners whose peak season comes in the fall and winter

when visitors flock to see forests turn color and for skiing.

The state planned to distribute food and water to towns cut

off from supplies due to road outages. In some cases those

supplies would be airlifted in, said Mark Bosma, a spokesman

for the Vermont Division of Emergency Management.

'THE WORST ONE'

In New York City, the streets buzzed anew, the bustle

slowed only temporarily by an unprecedented preemptive shutdown

of its mass transit system and Saturday's evacuation order.

Utilities restored electricity to roughly half the 6.7

million customers who had power knocked out, and New York City

mass transit and air travel crept back to normal.

The New Jersey suburbs were another matter. Train service

returned to normal, but many commuters remained at home

assessing damage to flooded basements, clearing out downed tree

branches or, in the worse cases, waiting for waters to recede.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said flooding would

likely continue over the next 48 hours.

'For members of these communities who have lost everything,

relief cannot come soon enough for them,' he said after a tour

of the flooded area. 'We can't fathom what these folks have

been going through.'

In Wayne, New Jersey, Mike Holland, 44, paddled his canoe

away from his trailer home. The water was so deep that three

cars were almost completely submerged on his street, which like

several others resembled a small lake.

Holland said he was used to floods but that 'this is the

worst one.'

'I had raised my trailer for the height of the 1984 flood

plus 8 inches (20 cm) but this was the '84 flood plus 12. It's

an easy fix but it's a pain,' Holland said.

Marguerite Ball, another resident of Wayne, described the

flooding as 'heartbreaking' for the working class area.

'I've never seen flooding like has taken place in the last

few years,' Ball said. 'People just get cleaned out, cleaned

up, rebuild -- and it happens again and again.'

Two hours north, in Windham, New York, a town of about

1,700 known for its ski resort, the main street was swamped

with deep muddy ditches, sidewalks had disappeared and debris

was piled high.

'Where do you start?' said one National Guardsman,

surveying damage in the heart of the ski town.

Irene killed around 40 people in 11 states, in addition to

three who died in the Dominican Republic and one in Puerto Rico

when the storm was still in the Caribbean, authorities said.

Total economic damage could reach $20 billion, said

Standard & Poor's Senior Economist Beth Ann Bovino.

Hundreds of thousands of homes suffered damage, raising

questions about how much would be covered by insurance as many

homeowner policies do not cover flood damage.

U.S. President Barack Obama pledged aid for cash-strapped

states and cities, but the federal money was not expected to

cover all the costs for local jurisdictions already facing a

fiscal crisis.

(Additional reporting by Scott Malone in Vermont, Dave Warner

in New Jersey, Dan Wiessner in New York, Joan Gralla in New

York; Writing by Daniel Trotta and Paul Thomasch; Editing by

Jackie Frank and Todd Eastham)

Keywords: STORM/IRENE

COPYRIGHT

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The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.


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UPDATE 6-Exxon, Rosneft tie up in Russian Arctic, U.S.

By Darya Korsunskaya and Braden Reddall

SOCHI, Russia/SAN FRANCISCO, Aug 30 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp and Rosneft signed an agreement to extract oil and gas from the Russian Arctic, in the most significant U.S.-Russian corporate deal since U.S. President Barack Obama began a push to improve ties.

The pact, which includes an option for Rosneft to invest in Gulf of Mexico and Texan properties, ended any hope of Britain's BP reviving its deal with state-owned Rosneft to develop the same Arctic territory. That deal was blocked in May by the billionaire partners in another BP Russian venture.

The pact gives Exxon, the biggest U.S. oil company, access to substantial reserves in Russia, the world's top oil producer. For Rosneft, it's about bringing in one of the few companies capable of drilling in the harsh, deep waters of the Arctic.

Russia has shown greater willingness in the past year to secure foreign partners, even if some deals later fell apart. The Exxon announcement comes only months after the demise of a Rosneft deal with Chevron Corp for a $1 billion investment in an estimated $32 billion Black Sea project.

Analysts cited differences between Chevron and Rosneft over the choice of contractor, the joint venture's domicile and the jurisdiction of arbitration for any business disputes.

Yet Chevron, like Royal Dutch Shell Plc, was also considered a potential partner for Rosneft's Arctic venture.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin attended the Tuesday signing -- in the Black Sea resort of Sochi -- by Exxon Chief Executive Rex Tillerson and Russia's top energy official, Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin.

'New horizons are opening up. One of the world's leading companies, Exxon Mobil, is starting to work on Russia's strategic shelf and deepwater continental shelf,' Putin said.

Exxon and Rosneft agreed to invest $3.2 billion to develop East Prinovozemelsky Blocks 1, 2, and 3 in the Arctic Kara Sea and the Tuapse licensing block in the Black Sea.

Rosneft will own 66.7 percent and Exxon the rest of the joint venture to develop the blocks, which Exxon said were 'among the most promising and least explored offshore areas globally, with high potential for liquids and gas.'

'The fact that someone with the stature of Exxon Mobil is willing to give it a stab is very significant,' said Amy Myers Jaffe, of the Baker Institute at Houston's Rice University.

While Rosneft will tap Exxon's expertise to open up one of the last unconquered drilling frontiers, it will also diversify further by getting a piece of some of Exxon's U.S. developments.

'To get into Russia offshore you give up some of your domestic offshore. I think it's a fair trade,' said Brian Youngberg, senior energy analyst at brokerage Edward Jones in St. Louis, who has a 'hold' rating on Exxon shares.

It marks a big move for Exxon after it spent a year swallowing XTO -- a much-criticized purchase that shifted its profile toward the depressed U.S. natural gas market. 'Now Exxon Mobil is starting to look elsewhere for deals,' Youngberg said.

Analysts also said the Rosneft-Exxon agreement indicates that the reset in relations Obama sought was working to reduce the political risk for U.S. businesses operating in Russia.

'Three years ago, American companies were being excluded. Here, an American company is at the center of a flagship announcement. This deal demonstrates that reset has had a positive effect on U.S.-Russia energy relations,' said Cliff Kupchan, director of Eurasian Practice at Eurasia Group.

In explaining the deal's significance, Myers Jaffe pointed to previous failed efforts in the past decade to foster joint energy interests. 'There was a lot of disappointment on both sides,' she said. 'The U.S. industry just gave up on Russia.'

PLAN B FOR ROSNEFT

Rosneft said the Kara Sea blocks contain an estimated 36 billion barrels of recoverable oil resources. Total resources are estimated at 110 billion barrels of oil equivalent -- more than four times Exxon's proven worldwide reserves.

The Black Sea block is estimated to hold 9 billion barrels of oil reserves. First drilling is planned to start in 2015, with Exxon shouldering most of the costs.

'The Russians very quickly had a Plan B, and Plan B was Exxon,' said Fadel Gheit, energy analyst at Oppenheimer & Co, referring to the quick switch to Exxon from BP.

The deal marks a turnaround in Russia for Exxon, which was widely thought to be on the verge of taking over Yukos, then Russia's largest oil company, before Yukos's boss, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, was arrested in 2003.

Khodorkovsky was subsequently jailed for fraud and tax evasion and Yukos's prime assets were bought at bankruptcy auctions by Rosneft, now Russia's industry leader and with enough reserves to cover 27 years of production.

Uncertainty persists over whether Putin or President Dmitry Medvedev will seek the presidency next March. Putin can now show off the deal as a success if he decides to run.

The transaction also marks a comeback for Sechin, who was ousted as Rosneft chairman earlier this year in a purge of state company boards ordered by Medvedev. Sechin estimated total investment in the project at $200 billion-$300 billion.

In anticipation of all the money flowing there, oilfield services companies including Schlumberger Ltd, Baker Hughes Inc and Weatherford International Ltd WFT.N> have been picking up assets in Russia.

Environmental concerns are unlikely to create barriers to oil extraction in Russia's remote Arctic regions, if moves this year by the country's Natural Resources Ministry to shift nature reserve boundaries are any guide.

U.S. UPSTREAM

Rosneft will be offered an equity interest in Exxon exploration projects in North America, including deepwater Gulf of Mexico and fields in Texas, as well as in other countries.

The deal thus fulfills a demand for reciprocity often made by Putin, helping Rosneft, which already works with Exxon offshore Russia's Sakhalin island, toward its long-term goal of being a global energy major.

It was not clear whether any such investments by Rosneft would need approval from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States. An Exxon spokesman declined to comment.

There is no exchange of equity in the agreement, while the BP deal called for a $16 billion share swap in which BP would have exchanged a 5 percent stake for 9.4 percent in Rosneft.

'Exxon is double or triple the size and market value of BP,' said Gheit at Oppenheimer. 'So, obviously, this would be much more important for a BP than it is for Exxon.'

While Rosneft shares rose 1.4 percent in Moscow, Exxon fell slightly on the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday.

(Additional reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin, Katya Golubkova, Michael Erman and Ernest Scheyder; Writing by Douglas Busvine and Braden Reddall; Editing by Dan Lalor, Tiffany Wu, John Wallace, Steve Orlofsky and Phil Berlowitz)

((douglas.busvine@thomsonreuters.com)(+7 495 775 1242)) Keywords: ROSNEFT EXXON/

(Multimedia versions of Reuters Top News are now available for: * 3000 Xtra: visit http://topnews.session.rservices.com * BridgeStation: view story .134 For more information on Top News: http://topnews.reuters.com)

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The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.


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Minggu, 11 September 2011

Seoul shares may continue rise on U.S. gains

SEOUL, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Seoul shares may make modest gains

on Wednesday following continuing rises in U.S. stocks as

investors bet that uncertainties surrounding the global economy

are declining, analysts said.

South Korea's industrial production in July fell by a

seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent from June, data showed on

Wednesday, missing market expectations and adding to concerns

about sputtering economic growth.

'Instead of the data, South Korean stocks will reflect

views...that China will soften its tightening moves, which has a

lot to do with South Korean exports,' said Kim Young-june, a

market analyst at SK Securities.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI)

climbed for a fourth straight session on Tuesday, ending up 0.78

percent.

----------------MARKET SNAPSHOT @ 22:18 GMT ------------------

INSTRUMENT LAST PCT CHG NET CHG

S&P 500 1,212.92 0.23% 2.840

USD/JPY 76.72 0.01% 0.010

10-YR US TSY YLD 2.176 -- -0.088

SPOT GOLD $1,836.19 -0.05% -1.010

US CRUDE $88.54 -0.40% -0.360

DOW JONES 11559.95 0.18% 20.70

ASIA ADRS 123.93 0.10% 0.12

-------------------------------------------------------------

MARKET SUMMARY

>Wall St gains as Fed minutes boost stimulus bets

>Treasuries gain; consumer data fuel stimulus hopes

>Euro slides; array of factors stoke risk aversion

>Libya sees oil output at pre-war levels in 15 mos

STOCKS TO WATCH

SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS

Samsung Electronics plans to slash ts monthly television

panel output by fourth-fifths by the end of this year, a local

newspaper reported.

(Reporting by Ju-min Park; Editing by Jonathan Hopfner)

Keywords: MARKETS KOREA STOCKS

(ju-min.park@thomsonreuters.com)(+82 2 3704 5650)(Reuters Messaging: ju-min.park.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)

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Foreign brokers set to sell Japanese stocks

TOKYO, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Following are orders for Japanese stocks placed through nine foreign securities houses before the start of trade on Wednesday.

Japanese Stocks:

SELL 12.8 million shares

BUY 11.6 million shares

----------------------------------------

SELL 1.2 million shares

(Reporting by Ayai Tomisawa; Editing by Edwina Gibbs) Keywords: MARKETS JAPAN STOCKS/ORDERS

(ayai.tomisawa@reuters.com +81-3-6441-1875)(Reuters Messaging: ayai.tomisawa.reuters.com@reuters.net)

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INSTANT VIEW-S.Korea July output output drops, misses fcasts

SEOUL, Aug 31 (Reuters) - South Korea's industrial production in July fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent from June, data showed on Wednesday, missing market expectations and adding to concerns about sputtering economic growth.

On the year, industrial output -- which covers manufacturing and mining production -- also grew a slower-than-expected 3.8 percent in July, Statistics Korea said in a statement.

**********************************************************

- For full story, double-click

- For full table, double-click

- Reuters poll forecasts: July industrial production was seen up a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent from June and up 6.5 percent from a year earlier.

KEY POINTS:

COMMENTARY:

KIM HYO-JIN, ECONOMIST, DONGBU SECURITIES

'I think it is time to lower our expectations on exports given the widened volatility in markets and concerns over another recession.'

'Domestic demand is broadly linked to exports here and looks like it's slowing a bit, considering tightening moves on household lending.'

'With so many changes in August, the central bank will keep rates steady in September again. It needs to take into account recent market situations and step back from its previous stance of raising rates.'

MARKET REACTION:

- The data was released before local financial markets opened.

LINKS:

- Full statement in Korean from Statistics Korea at http://www.kostat.go.kr

- Historical data available at the statistics agency's database at http://kosis.kr

- For all South Korean news and data, 3000 Xtra users can double-click on

BACKGROUND:

- Confidence among top South Korean companies tumbled to its lowest level in almost two and a half years on concerns about a global double-dip slump and heavy household debt, a business lobby group's monthly survey showed on Monday.

- South Korea's short-term foreign borrowings shrank by the sharpest pace in eight months in July, decreasing by $5.05 billion on the month, following a series of capital flow measures aimed at shielding the country from global jitters.

(Reporting by Kim Yeonhee and Ju-min Park; Editing by Jonathan Hopfner) Keywords: KOREA ECONOMY/OUTPUT

(yeonhee.kim@thomsonreuters.com)(+822 3704 5646)(Reuters Messaging: yeonhee.kim.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)

COPYRIGHT

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The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.


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TEXT-S&P: Assigns 'BBB' Preliminary Rating To N.Z.'s Chorus Ltd.

(The following was released by the rating agency)

MELBOURNE (Standard & Poor's) Aug. 31, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it had assigned its 'BBB' preliminary long-term issuer credit rating to New Zealand-based telecommunications company Chorus Ltd. (Chorus). The outlook on the rating is stable. Chorus is the access network business of Telecom Corp. of New Zealand Ltd. (TCNZ; A/Watch Neg/A-1), which is planning to demerge the Chorus business and related infrastructure in late 2011, subject to shareholder and various other approvals. The ratings on TCNZ remain on CreditWatch with negative implications, where they were initially placed on Aug. 4, 2010; we expect to lower the long-term ratings on TCNZ by one notch to 'A-' and the short-term rating to 'A-2' if the demerger proceeds as planned.

'The preliminary 'BBB' rating on Chorus reflects our view of the company's strong market position as the dominant fixed-line telecommunications access network in New Zealand, the high capital barriers to competition, and Chorus' strong operating cash flow,' Standard & Poor's credit analyst Paul Draffin said. 'These strengths are tempered by the network volume risks associated with fixed to mobile network substitution, and the execution and cost risks associated with the rollout of the proposed Ultra Fast Broadband (UFB) fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) network.'

We consider Chorus to have a 'strong' business risk profile, underpinned by high barriers to entry created by the substantial capital costs of its fixed-line access network and the relatively small and low-density nature of the New Zealand population. That said, we expect the key competitive challenge to Chorus' network position in the next few years to come from fixed to mobile network substitution. The rating incorporates an expectation that mobile-only households will continue to grow and could reach up to 15% of the New Zealand population in the next five years, from about 5% currently. However, we consider that Chorus' access network remains well positioned to retain a large share of total New Zealand telecommunications users in the long term.

Mr. Draffin added: 'The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Chorus' strong network position, prudent capital structure, and balanced approach to capital management should offset risks at the 'BBB' rating associated with the group's large and complex FTTH capital-expenditure program and revenue risks associated with fixed to mobile substitution.'

Keywords: MARKETS RATINGS CHORUSLTD

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Japan Aug manufacturing PMI slows on yen gains

TOKYO, Aug 30 (Reuters) - Japanese manufacturing activity

slowed in August for the first time in two months as worries

about a strong yen and subdued demand from China weighed on new

export orders, a survey showed on Wednesday.

The Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

(PMI) fell to a seasonally adjusted 51.9 in August from 52.1 in

July. The index remained above the 50 threshold that separates

contraction from expansion for a fourth month but slipped to its

lowest since June.

The index for new export orders, a leading indicator of

Japanese exports, fell to 48.0 from 48.8 in July to reach its

lowest level since April, the data showed.

New export orders contracted for the sixth consecutive month

in August, the longest such streak since the global financial

crisis.

'PMI survey data suggest that domestic demand drove overall

manufacturing expansion in August, as new export business

continued to fall amid persistent yen strength and reports of

sluggish demand from China,' said Alex Hamilton, an economist at

Markit.

Japanese officials intervened unilaterally in the currency

market and eased monetary policy on Aug. 4 as the yen

approached a record high versus the dollar. Still, these steps

have not stopped investors from seeking the yen as a safe haven

against risk.

The output component of the PMI index fell to 52.2 in August

from 53.1 in July to reach the lowest in two months.

(Reporting by Stanley White; Editing by Joseph Radford)

((stanley.white@thomsonreuters.com)(+81 3 6441 1984)(Reuters

Messaging: stanley.white.reuters.com@reuters.net))

(If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com Detailed PMI data is only available under licence from the supplier, Markit, and customers need to apply to Markit for a licence To subscribe to the full data, click on: http://www.markit.com/information/register/reuters-pmi-subscriptions For further information, please phone Markit on +44 20 7260 2454 or email economics@markit.com)

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TABLE-S.Korea July factory output falls vs June

SEOUL, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Details of South Korea's July

industrial activity, retail sales and investment data, released

on Wednesday by Statistics Korea (Percentage change unless

stated, month-on-month changes seasonally adjusted):

JULY *JUNE

Y/Y M/M Y/Y M/M

Industrial output 3.8 -0.4 6.5 0.9

Ex-factory shipments 3.0 ~ 5.8 ~

For domestic market 0.9 ~ 3.5 ~

For exports 5.7 ~ 8.9 ~

Inventories 10.1 ~ 10.0 ~

Average factory operation rate 82.1 82.5

(percent)

Service-sector output 3.8 0.4 3.5 0.9

Retail sales 5.3 2.3 5.8 1.4

Capital investment -2.7 -5.6 4.7 0.7

Construction starts value -13.2 -15.1 -1.5 14.5

^Composite leading indicator 2.0 0.4 1.7 0.5

* Revised

~ Not available

^ Not seasonally adjusted

(Reporting by Kim Yeonhee; Editing by Jonathan Hopfner)

Keywords: KOREA ECONOMY/OUTPUT

(yeonhee.kim@thomsonreuters.com)(+822 3704 5646)(Reuters Messaging: yeonhee.kim.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)

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Sabtu, 10 September 2011

BRIEF-First Solar gives update on solar farm in Australia

Aug 30 (Reuters) - First Solar Inc:

* Australia's first utility-scale solar pv project under way in Western

Australia

* Verve energy and GE Energy financial services will each own 50 percent of the

greenough river solar farm

* Western Australian government providing A$20 million for project;no debt will

be raised to fund project

* Says project is expected to be fully operational mid next year.

((Bangalore Equities Newsroom; +91 80 4135 5800; within U.S. +1 646 223 8780))

(For more news, please click here)

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S.Korea July factory output drops, misses forecasts

SEOUL, Aug 31 (Reuters) - South Korea's industrial production in July fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent from June, data showed on Wednesday, missing market expectations and adding to concerns about sputtering economic growth.

On the year, industrial output -- which covers manufacturing and mining production -- also grew a slower-than-expected 3.8 percent in July, Statistics Korea said in a statement.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast industrial output would rise by a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent over the preceding month and 6.5 percent from a year earlier.

The composite leading indicator, a measure of where Asia's fourth-largest economy is headed, was up 2.0 percent in July from a year earlier, quickening for a third straight month.

(Reporting by Kim Yeonhee; Editing by Jonathan Hopfner) Keywords: KOREA ECONOMY/OUTPUT

(yeonhee.kim@thomsonreuters.com)(+822 3704 5646)(Reuters Messaging: yeonhee.kim.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)

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Japan Aug manufacturing PMI slows on yen gains

TOKYO, Aug 30 (Reuters) - Japanese manufacturing activity

slowed in August for the first time in two months as worries

about a strong yen and subdued demand from China weighed on new

export orders, a survey showed on Wednesday.

The Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

(PMI) fell to a seasonally adjusted 51.9 in August from 52.1 in

July. The index remained above the 50 threshold that separates

contraction from expansion for a fourth month but slipped to its

lowest since June.

The index for new export orders, a leading indicator of

Japanese exports, fell to 48.0 from 48.8 in July to reach its

lowest level since April, the data showed.

New export orders contracted for the sixth consecutive month

in August, the longest such streak since the global financial

crisis.

'PMI survey data suggest that domestic demand drove overall

manufacturing expansion in August, as new export business

continued to fall amid persistent yen strength and reports of

sluggish demand from China,' said Alex Hamilton, an economist at

Markit.

Japanese officials intervened unilaterally in the currency

market and eased monetary policy on Aug. 4 as the yen

approached a record high versus the dollar. Still, these steps

have not stopped investors from seeking the yen as a safe haven

against risk.

The output component of the PMI index fell to 52.2 in August

from 53.1 in July to reach the lowest in two months.

(Reporting by Stanley White; Editing by Joseph Radford)

((stanley.white@thomsonreuters.com)(+81 3 6441 1984)(Reuters

Messaging: stanley.white.reuters.com@reuters.net))

(If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com Detailed PMI data is only available under licence from the supplier, Markit, and customers need to apply to Markit for a licence To subscribe to the full data, click on: http://www.markit.com/information/register/reuters-pmi-subscriptions For further information, please phone Markit on +44 20 7260 2454 or email economics@markit.com)

COPYRIGHT

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INSTANT VIEW 4-S.Korea July output drops, misses fcasts

SEOUL, Aug 31 (Reuters) - South Korea's industrial production in July fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent from June, data showed on Wednesday, missing market expectations and adding to concerns about sputtering economic growth.

On the year, industrial output -- which covers manufacturing and mining production -- also grew a slower-than-expected 3.8 percent in July, Statistics Korea said in a statement.

**********************************************************

KEY POINTS:

- For full story, double-click

- For full table, double-click

- Reuters poll forecasts: July industrial production was seen up a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent from June and up 6.5 percent from a year earlier.

COMMENTARY:

JUN MIN-KYOO, ECONOMIST, KOREA INVESTMENT AND SECURITIES

'Both exports and production will see a modest slowdown due to the worsening economic situation in developed countries. Domestic demand will also likely be weakened by weak employment.'

'I think the central bank will freeze interest rates while inflation peaks. The entire economy will be slowing and people are expected to spend less.'

GOH YOU SUN, ECONOMIST, DAEWOO SECURITIES

'The data reflects the slowing pace of recovery in the global economy, which is impacting exports. The earthquake in Japan also created a necessity to fill in the subsequent production gap in that country, but the normalisation of the Japanese economy has taken away that temporary boost to Korean exports.'

HWANG SOO-HO, BOND ANALYST, DAISHIN SECURITIES

'The data seems to underscore growing downside risks to our economy along with concerns about slowing global economic growth and a subsequent drop in exports.'

'Economic indicators could worsen further in August to reflect the U.S. rating downgrade early this month and weak U.S. data, though the composite leading indicator today showed quickening annual growth.'

IM NOJUNG, CHIEF ECONOMIST, SOLOMON INVESTMENTS

'We believe the central bank rate raising cycle has ended for this year, and if economic pressure increases we are expecting a rate cut within this year.'

'Although the employment rate is improving, it is not enough to bring up consumption with the burden of household debt.'

'Exports and production for the second half are expected to slow down.'

KIM HYO-JIN, ECONOMIST, DONGBU SECURITIES

'I think it is time to lower our expectations on exports given the widened volatility in markets and concerns over another recession.'

'Domestic demand is broadly linked to exports here and looks like it's slowing a bit, considering tightening moves on household lending.'

'With so many changes in August, the central bank will keep rates steady in September again. It needs to take into account recent market situations and step back from its previous stance of raising rates.'

MARKET REACTION:

- The data was released before local financial markets opened.

LINKS:

- Full statement in Korean from Statistics Korea at http://www.kostat.go.kr

- Historical data available at the statistics agency's database at http://kosis.kr

- For all South Korean news and data, 3000 Xtra users can double-click on

BACKGROUND:

- Confidence among top South Korean companies tumbled to its lowest level in almost two and a half years on concerns about a global double-dip slump and heavy household debt, a business lobby group's monthly survey showed on Monday.

- South Korea's short-term foreign borrowings shrank by the sharpest pace in eight months in July, decreasing by $5.05 billion on the month, following a series of capital flow measures aimed at shielding the country from global jitters.

(Reporting by Kim Yeonhee, Ju-min Park, Taeyi Kim, Joonhee Yu and Seongbin Kang; Editing by Jonathan Hopfner) Keywords: KOREA ECONOMY/OUTPUT

(yeonhee.kim@thomsonreuters.com)(+822 3704 5646)(Reuters Messaging: yeonhee.kim.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)

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The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.


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INSTANT VIEW 2-S.Korea July output output drops, misses fcasts

SEOUL, Aug 31 (Reuters) - South Korea's industrial production in July fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent from June, data showed on Wednesday, missing market expectations and adding to concerns about sputtering economic growth.

On the year, industrial output -- which covers manufacturing and mining production -- also grew a slower-than-expected 3.8 percent in July, Statistics Korea said in a statement.

**********************************************************

KEY POINTS:

- For full story, double-click

- For full table, double-click

- Reuters poll forecasts: July industrial production was seen up a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent from June and up 6.5 percent from a year earlier.

COMMENTARY:

IM NOJUNG, CHIEF ECONOMIST, SOLOMON INVESTMENTS

'We believe the central bank rate raising cycle has ended for this year, and if economic pressure increases we are expecting a rate cut within this year.'

'Although the employment rate is improving, it is not enough to bring up consumption with the burden of household debt.'

'Exports and production for the second half are expected to slow down.'

KIM HYO-JIN, ECONOMIST, DONGBU SECURITIES

'I think it is time to lower our expectations on exports given the widened volatility in markets and concerns over another recession.'

'Domestic demand is broadly linked to exports here and looks like it's slowing a bit, considering tightening moves on household lending.'

'With so many changes in August, the central bank will keep rates steady in September again. It needs to take into account recent market situations and step back from its previous stance of raising rates.'

MARKET REACTION:

- The data was released before local financial markets opened.

LINKS:

- Full statement in Korean from Statistics Korea at http://www.kostat.go.kr

- Historical data available at the statistics agency's database at http://kosis.kr

- For all South Korean news and data, 3000 Xtra users can double-click on

BACKGROUND:

- Confidence among top South Korean companies tumbled to its lowest level in almost two and a half years on concerns about a global double-dip slump and heavy household debt, a business lobby group's monthly survey showed on Monday.

- South Korea's short-term foreign borrowings shrank by the sharpest pace in eight months in July, decreasing by $5.05 billion on the month, following a series of capital flow measures aimed at shielding the country from global jitters.

(Reporting by Kim Yeonhee, Ju-min Park and Taeyi Kim; Editing by Jonathan Hopfner) Keywords: KOREA ECONOMY/OUTPUT

(yeonhee.kim@thomsonreuters.com)(+822 3704 5646)(Reuters Messaging: yeonhee.kim.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)

COPYRIGHT

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The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.


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UPDATE 3-Airlifts, water rescues in wake of Hurricane Irene

By Grant McCool

PATERSON, N.J., Aug 30 (Reuters) - Emergency workers

plucked dozens of residents from doorways and windows as

Hurricane Irene's floodwaters rose on Tuesday, swallowing

hones, submerging cars and turning the streets of this working

class town into lakes.

While Hurricane Irene's paralyzing rampage through the U.S.

Northeast largely spared New York City, it caused the worst

flooding in decades in inland areas of New York state, New

Jersey and Vermont. The storm has been blamed for the deaths of

about 40 people.

Search and rescue teams working in Paterson, New Jersey

have pulled nearly 600 people from homes in recent days with

the most intense efforts on Tuesday when the Passaic River

measured 13 feet (4 metres) above flood stage, the highest

level since 1903, said Paterson police Sgt. Alex Popov.

Firefighters rescued some by boat and the National Guard

saved others by truck, taking them to a Red Cross shelter.

'Some are standing there in the doorway. Some are coming

out of their windows,' Popov said.

'It's raging,' he said of the Passaic, which runs through

the center of town, about 20 miles (32 kilometers) outside New

York City.

Along the banks of the swollen, rushing brown river,

residents sought to save what they could from homes submerged

in waist-high water. Others stood along the river's edge,

snapping pictures of the devastation.

'I'm from this area and this is the worst that I've seen

here, the farthest up this water has come,' said Peter Hennen,

63, who traveled from south Jersey to help his son, a homeowner

in Paterson, rig up pumps to remove water.

'Everybody thought the (Jersey) shore was going to be

devastating,' he said. 'But people here forgot about the media

telling them the storm's 500 miles wide, so the rest of Jersey

got hit.'

Authorities expected the river to begin receding later on

Tuesday.

Clear skies in the U.S. northeast aided rescue efforts, but

hundreds of thousands of homes were damaged, some swept away by

rivers already swollen by an unusually wet summer.

Irene hit North Carolina as a hurricane and moved north

over major East Coast cities, then weakened to a tropical storm

over New England and dissipated after tracking into Canada.

Some of the worst damage was not along the coast, but in

towns located inland.

In Vermont, officials planned to airlift food and water to

towns cut off by the floodwaters. Some 260 Vermont roads

remained closed and the state was beginning to deploy crews of

workers, backed up by the National Guard, to repair them.

Vermonters already beaten down by the prolonged U.S.

economic slump saw homes and cars washed away, and were then

faced with washed out roads that complicated their recovery

from the state's worst flooding in more than 80 years.

'Economically, I'm devastated,' said Betsey Reagan, owner

of Dot's Diner in West Dover, Vermont. 'Who knows what is going

to happen? ... We'll miss the (autumn) foliage season, who

knows what the winter is going to be like? Tourists can't come

if the roads aren't open.'

The timing of the storm, at the end of summer and before

the Labor Day holiday weekend, was particularly troubling for

business owners whose peak season comes in the fall and winter

when visitors flock to see forests turn color and for skiing.

The state planned to distribute food and water to towns cut

off from supplies due to road outages. In some cases those

supplies would be airlifted in, said Mark Bosma, a spokesman

for the Vermont Division of Emergency Management.

'THE WORST ONE'

In New York City, the streets buzzed anew, the bustle

slowed only temporarily by an unprecedented preemptive shutdown

of its mass transit system and Saturday's evacuation order.

Utilities restored electricity to roughly half the 6.7

million customers who had power knocked out, and New York City

mass transit and air travel crept back to normal.

The New Jersey suburbs were another matter. Train service

returned to normal, but many commuters remained at home

assessing damage to flooded basements, clearing out downed tree

branches or, in the worse cases, waiting for waters to recede.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said flooding would

likely continue over the next 48 hours.

'For members of these communities who have lost everything,

relief cannot come soon enough for them,' he said after a tour

of the flooded area. 'We can't fathom what these folks have

been going through.'

In Wayne, New Jersey, Mike Holland, 44, paddled his canoe

away from his trailer home. The water was so deep that three

cars were almost completely submerged on his street, which like

several others resembled a small lake.

Holland said he was used to floods but that 'this is the

worst one.'

'I had raised my trailer for the height of the 1984 flood

plus 8 inches (20 cm) but this was the '84 flood plus 12. It's

an easy fix but it's a pain,' Holland said.

Marguerite Ball, another resident of Wayne, described the

flooding as 'heartbreaking' for the working class area.

'I've never seen flooding like has taken place in the last

few years,' Ball said. 'People just get cleaned out, cleaned

up, rebuild -- and it happens again and again.'

Two hours north, in Windham, New York, a town of about

1,700 known for its ski resort, the main street was swamped

with deep muddy ditches, sidewalks had disappeared and debris

was piled high.

'Where do you start?' said one National Guardsman,

surveying damage in the heart of the ski town.

Irene killed around 40 people in 11 states, in addition to

three who died in the Dominican Republic and one in Puerto Rico

when the storm was still in the Caribbean, authorities said.

Total economic damage could reach $20 billion, said

Standard & Poor's Senior Economist Beth Ann Bovino.

Hundreds of thousands of homes suffered damage, raising

questions about how much would be covered by insurance as many

homeowner policies do not cover flood damage.

U.S. President Barack Obama pledged aid for cash-strapped

states and cities, but the federal money was not expected to

cover all the costs for local jurisdictions already facing a

fiscal crisis.

(Additional reporting by Scott Malone in Vermont, Dave Warner

in New Jersey, Dan Wiessner in New York, Joan Gralla in New

York; Writing by Daniel Trotta and Paul Thomasch; Editing by

Jackie Frank and Todd Eastham)

Keywords: STORM/IRENE

COPYRIGHT

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Jumat, 09 September 2011

Japan Aug manufacturing PMI slows on yen gains

TOKYO, Aug 30 (Reuters) - Japanese manufacturing activity

slowed in August for the first time in two months as worries

about a strong yen and subdued demand from China weighed on new

export orders, a survey showed on Wednesday.

The Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

(PMI) fell to a seasonally adjusted 51.9 in August from 52.1 in

July. The index remained above the 50 threshold that separates

contraction from expansion for a fourth month but slipped to its

lowest since June.

The index for new export orders, a leading indicator of

Japanese exports, fell to 48.0 from 48.8 in July to reach its

lowest level since April, the data showed.

New export orders contracted for the sixth consecutive month

in August, the longest such streak since the global financial

crisis.

'PMI survey data suggest that domestic demand drove overall

manufacturing expansion in August, as new export business

continued to fall amid persistent yen strength and reports of

sluggish demand from China,' said Alex Hamilton, an economist at

Markit.

Japanese officials intervened unilaterally in the currency

market and eased monetary policy on Aug. 4 as the yen

approached a record high versus the dollar. Still, these steps

have not stopped investors from seeking the yen as a safe haven

against risk.

The output component of the PMI index fell to 52.2 in August

from 53.1 in July to reach the lowest in two months.

(Reporting by Stanley White; Editing by Joseph Radford)

((stanley.white@thomsonreuters.com)(+81 3 6441 1984)(Reuters

Messaging: stanley.white.reuters.com@reuters.net))

(If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com Detailed PMI data is only available under licence from the supplier, Markit, and customers need to apply to Markit for a licence To subscribe to the full data, click on: http://www.markit.com/information/register/reuters-pmi-subscriptions For further information, please phone Markit on +44 20 7260 2454 or email economics@markit.com)

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XE Forex Rates at 2011-08-31 00:00 UTC

This table includes hourly currency rates. To view live exchange rates or use our currency calculator, click here

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UPDATE 4-Fannie/Freddie regulator challenges BofA MBS pact

By Jonathan Stempel

NEW YORK, Aug 30 (Reuters) - The regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as dozens of investors, on Tuesday lodged objections to Bank of America Corp's proposed $8.5 billion mortgage-backed securities settlement.

Separately, a group of homeowners sued to block the accord, saying it would speed up foreclosures and prolong abuses in how mortgage loans are serviced. They are seeking a court order to force Bank of America to adopt and follow servicing policies that are 'higher than current industry standards.'

The settlement covers 530 mortgage pools from the former Countrywide Financial Corp, which was the nation's largest mortgage lender before Bank of America bought it in 2008.

Bank of New York Mellon Corp, the trustee handling the 530 trusts with $174 billion of unpaid principal balances, had negotiated the settlement with 22 institutional investors including the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, BlackRock Inc and Allianz SE's Pimco.

But some other investors say the payout is too low, or they lack enough information to know whether the accord is fair.

Lawrence Grayson, a bank spokesman, declined to comment, as did Bank of New York Mellon spokesman Kevin Heine.

In a court filing, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, called it a 'positive' that the settlement calls for improving loan servicing and fixing deficient documentation, and said the support of many large market participants is 'encouraging.'

Still, the FHFA said it lacks enough information about the accord, and wants to be ready to voice a 'substantive' objection 'should a now unforeseen issue arise' that hurts Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

'The FHFA sounds like it wants to preserve its right to contest refinements that could expose Fannie and Freddie to greater losses,' said Kathleen Engel, associate dean at Suffolk University Law School in Boston and co-author of 'The Subprime Virus.'

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2010 guaranteed 70 percent of single-family mortgage-backed securities that were issued, and provided $1.03 trillion of market liquidity, an FHFA report to Congress in June shows.

Marc Kasowitz, a lawyer for the FHFA, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

STANDING TO SUE?

Meanwhile, the homeowners, who say they have received default notices, seek class-action status for Countrywide borrowers from 2004 to 2008 whose loans are in the trusts and are serviced by Bank of America.'

'The settlement agreement will speed up foreclosures, perpetuate existing servicing abuses in the system, and undermine federal programs designed to stabilize the housing market,' the complaint said.

Bank of America is among large U.S. banks negotiating with regulators nationwide on a potential multi-billion dollar settlement to improve foreclosure practices.

'It is not clear the borrowers have standing,' Engel said. 'They certainly may be aggrieved by servicing problems, but they have to show the settlement itself causes them harm, either new injury or the loss of legal rights.'

A lawyer for the homeowners did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

DOZENS OF OBJECTIONS

Several dozen objections to the $8.5 billion settlement were filed ahead of a Tuesday deadline to intervene in the case, which is overseen by New York State Supreme Court Justice Barbara Kapnick in Manhattan.

Some of the challenges were filed simultaneously in federal court, where some of the objectors hope to move the case.

American International Group Inc, the insurer suing Bank of America for $10 billion in a separate MBS case, and the National Credit Union Administration were among those to object on Tuesday to the accord.

Others that have objected include the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, attorneys general of New York and Delaware, and various banks, insurers, investment funds and pension funds.

Bank of America paid $2.5 billion to buy Countrywide, but writedowns and legal costs have pushed the estimated cost of that purchase to more than $30 billion.

US Bancorp, trustee for a $1.75 billion Countrywide mortgage pool, this week separately sued Bank of America to force it to buy back the underlying loans.

The state case is In re: The Bank of New York Mellon, New York State Supreme Court, New York County, No. 651786/2011. The federal case is The Bank of New York Mellon et al v. Walnut Place LLC et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 11-05988. The homeowner case is Iesu et al v. The Bank of New York Mellon et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 11-06078.

(Reporting by Jonathan Stempel; Additional reporting by Joe Rauch in Charlotte, N.C.; editing by Carol Bishopric) Keywords: BANKOFAMERICA/MORTGAGE SETTLEMENT

(jon.stempel@thomsonreuters.com +1 646 223 6317; Reuters Messaging: jon.stempel.reuters.com@reuters.net)

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NZ to cap stakes in privatised companies - FinMin

WELLINGTON, Aug 31 (Reuters) - New Zealand investors are expected to end up owning the vast majority of shares in state-owned companies set to be partly privatised, with limits also likely to be imposed on the size of holdings, the finance minister said on Wednesday.

The sale of minority stakes in three power companies, a coal miner, and reduction of the government stake in the national airline, would likely raise between NZ$5 billion ($4.2 billion) to NZ$7 billion, and is being aimed at local investors.

'The government expects New Zealanders to own at least 85 to 90 percent of the SOE's (state owned enterprises) included in the partial sell-off,' Bill English said in a speech prepared for a financial conference.

He said the government would also probably impose a cap of 10 percent on any single shareholding to ensure the widest participation.

The policy is politically sensitive, but the centre-right National Party-led government has said it will proceed with the sales if it wins this November's election.

To counter opposition and fears of foreign ownership, the government has said it will retain a minimum 51 percent stake in each company and give preference to New Zealand investors in the share sale.

English has said proceeds from the sales will be used to repay debt and invest in new infrastructure.

He reaffirmed that the government still expects to return to a budget surplus in 2014/15. On Tuesday, English said extra costs caused by earthquakes in Christchurch would widen the 2010/11 deficit by around NZ$1.2 billion to a record around NZ$18 billion.

English reiterated that New Zealand has been weathering global financial turbulence better than many developed economies, but remains under scrutiny because of high external debt levels.

He said high commodity prices and strong trade links with fast growing Asia were underpinning the economy, while improved national savings would strength foundations, even if they slow recovery.

(Gyles Beckford) Keywords: NEWZEALAND ECONOMY/ENGLISH

(Gyles.Beckford@thomsonreuters.com)(+64 4 471 4321)(Reuters Messaging: gyles.beckford.reuters.com@reuters.net)

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Daily FX Market Outlook by AceTrader-30-8-2011

Market Review - 29/08/2011 21:58 GMT

Dollar rises versus yen and franc on risk appetite

The greenback strengthened against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc Monday due to rally of U.S. and European stock markets as solid U.S. economic data raised investors' appetite to buy riskier assets instead of holding safe-haven currencies.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback traded narrowly in Asia on dollar's weakness before dropping to 76.58 in European session. However, the pair climbed to 77.02 in NY morning on risk appetite together with the rally of U.S. and European equities before retreating to 76.81 ahead of NY closing.

The DJI gained 254.71 points, or 2.26%, to 11539.25 whilst the CAC-40 and DAX closed up 2.16% and 2.39% respectively. U.K.was closed on market holiday.

The greenback was supported by better-than-expected U.S. economic data. U.S. personal income and personal spending in Jul increased 0.3% and 0.8% vs forecasts of 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. PCE index M/M and Y/Y in Jul came in at 0.4% and 2.8% whilst core PCE M/M and Y/Y were up 0.2% and 1.6% respectively.

Earlier in Asia, Japan's Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda was elected as the next leader of the DPJ and the vote for PM is scheduled for Tuesday.

Despite euro's retreat to 1.4466 in Asia, the single currency surged to 1.4550, it's highest level since early July on improved risk appetite in thin European session but price pared intra-day gain and retreated to 1.4485 at New York open. Although the pair met renewed buying and rebounded to 1.4546 on the rally of U.S. and European equities, offers around 1.4550 sent euro back to 1.4491 in NY afternoon before stabilising.

The British pound briefly dipped to 1.6322 in Australia but edged higher on risk appetite in Asian and European sessions. Cable eventually climbed to an intra-day high of 1.6454 in NY morning on cross buying of sterling but retreated in tandem with euro to 1.6387 in NY midday before recovering.

Data to be released on Tuesday include:

New Zealand building permits, Japan household spending, unemployment rate, retail sales, Australia building approvals, U.K. mortgage approval, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, consumer sentiment, Canada PPI, current account, U.S. SnP/CS home price, consumer confidence, FOMC minutes.

http://www.acetraderfx.com


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Forex news trading strategy

Forex Forum


View RSS Feed by on Today at 12:02 PM (9 Views)

Throughout my trading career I have used one trading system that is very risky, but also very profitable and that is economic news trading system. Not many traders want to practice this method, but if you know how to do it, you can possibly make money every week, because there is always some economic news coming. Usually there could be about 2 or 4 important news coming from some country and using some technical set ups you can trade each one of them.

Generally speaking, if you know what support and resistance is, you know half the job. So, what you need to do is to define a resistance level on 1 hour chart and a support level on 1 hour chart. The idea is: when news come out it gives such a stimulus to currency pairs that they sometimes jump more than one hundred pips per second. So, either your resistance or support level is broken. Now, before news come you place an order below support and one more order above resistance. When the price reaches either one of those levels your order is opened and you go with the price.

When the price runs out of steam you close your order and spend the rest of the day as you wish. In fact, this type of system does not require you much time to invest. You just mark those support and resistance levels before news and place the orders. If the market does not go wild and your orders are not opened you just remove them and wait for the other news release, perhaps another day.

I particularly like news from Great Britain as pound is a very volatile pair and news creates some nice moves in pound pairs and creates much bigger opportunities than in any other pair. I also enjoy Canadian dollar pairs as these make some nice moves too. eur/cad and gbp/cad are the biggest movers in Canadian dollar pairs. You can definitely use eur/usd or Japanese yen pairs to trade these macroeconomic events as well.

Before you trade the system I would recommend practicing it on a demo account and see for yourself whether it fits your trading style and personality. And while trading never risk more than you can afford. Learn to trade while practicing and only then play with real money. Good luck.

See also:
Trend
RSI
MACD

fibo777's Avatar Join DateOct 2009Posts47Blog Entries2Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.


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Kamis, 08 September 2011

Forex Daily Outlook – August 31 2011

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in the US and GDP in Canada are the main events today. Here is an outlook on the market-movers awaiting us

In the US, Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, vale the employed people without government & farming business on the passing month, reduce of 7K is predicted to 103K.

Read the rest of the article Forex Daily Outlook – August 31 2011


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Forex Trades 08/30 - US session

Forex Trades 08/30 - US session - by Forex ticket (ex mataf.net)
EUR/USD - Euro / US Dollar
Resistances: 1.4495 - 1.445 - 1.4425
Supports: 1.427 - 1.433 - 1.4385

GBP/USD - British Pound / US Dollar
Entry: 1.632
Stop: 1.6355
Resistances: 1.6415 - 1.6375 - 1.634
Supports: 1.621 - 1.626 - 1.6305

USD/CHF - US Dollar / Swiss Franc
Entry: 0.822
Stop: 0.817
Resistances: 0.83 - 0.828 - 0.824
Supports: 0.811 - 0.814 - 0.8185

EUR/JPY - Euro / Yen
Entry: 110.6
Stop: 110.35
Resistances: 111.65 - 111.25 - 110.7
Supports: 109.2 - 110.1 - 110.4

EUR/AUD - Euro / Australian dollar
Entry: 1.353
Stop: 1.3565
Resistances: 1.3705 - 1.3615 - 1.3565
Supports: 1.3295 - 1.3485 - 1.3525


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|FXReturn.com|New York Forex Market Call 8-30-11|

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View RSS Feed by on Today at 09:28 AM (26 Views)

Welcome to the FXReturn.com New York Market Call for August 30th.,2011. DOW: 40 minutes into the open of Wall Street trading the Dow is down nearly 80 points, but still trading above the 10 day average which resides at 11,200. Consecutive closes above the 10 day average will keep the bullish posture of the market intact with the June pivot low of 11,835 as the next upside objective. A close, however, below 11,200 will encourage a wave of selling down to 10,448. Stochastics are recognizing a positive crossover formation suggesting this mornings sell-off will be short lived | EUR/USD: Trading near the lows of the session, but honoring the 10 day average which resides at 1.4430 as support. Consecutive closes above the 10 day average will keep the bullish posture of the market intact with 1.4576 as the next upside objective. A close, however, below 1.4330 will encourage a wave of selling down to 1.4054. Stochastics remain positive suggesting more upside price activity is on the horizon despite this mornings sell off | DailyFX Forum visitors can sign up for our FREE Live Interactive Webinars and Live Trading Room at FXReturn.com as well as review our latest TON: Trade On News Plans for the upcoming week. Please click the following link to view our daily research: NewYorkMarketCallCreated with Camtasia Studio 5
Join DateOct 2009Posts0Blog Entries442Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.


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|FXReturn.com|London Forex Market Call 8-30-11|

Forex Forum


Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.


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Oil Prices – Daily Outlook August 29

Forex Forum

HomeBlogsliorOil Prices – Daily Outlook August 29

View RSS Feed by on Yesterday at 08:43 AM (20 Views)

Oil prices ended last week with moderate rises after the turbulent they have endured during the previous week. It's currently not clear yet what were the damages to the East Coast infrastructure due to Hurricane Irene including the oil and natural gas pipelines. This news may effect the oil and gas production. Today, the US pending home sales report will be published.

For the complete report on oil prices outlook see here.

lior's Avatar Join DateDec 2010Posts13Blog Entries111Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.


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Rabu, 07 September 2011

Gold & Silver Prices - Daily Outlook August 30

Forex Forum

HomeBlogsliorGold & Silver Prices - Daily Outlook August 30

View RSS Feed by on Today at 06:17 AM (32 Views)

Gold and silver started off the week with moderate falls as the US Treasury bill yields fell and the S&P500 index inclined. Today, the U.S. consumer confidence report will be published and the minutes of the last FOMC meeting.

For the complete report on gold and silver prices outlook

Gold and silver started the week with moderate falls: Gold price fell on Monday by 0.32% to $1,791; silver also declined by 0.98% to $40.60. During August, gold increased by 9.8%, and silver by 1.2%. The chart below shows the development of the normalized gold and silver (July 29th 2011=100) during August.

lior's Avatar Join DateDec 2010Posts13Blog Entries111Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.


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Forex Daily Outlook – August 30 2011

Forex Forum

HomeBlogsYohayForex Daily Outlook – August 30 2011

View RSS Feed by on Yesterday at 05:02 PM (27 Views)

FOMC Meeting Minutes in the US and RMPI in Canada are the main events lined up. Let’s see what awaits us today.

In the US, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes, full record of the FOMC’s last meeting, regarding interest rates financial conditions.

Read the rest of the article Forex Daily Outlook – August 30 2011

Yohay's Avatar Join DateSep 2009Posts2Blog Entries1,506Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.


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EUR/USD Sliding to Support As Londoners Return

Euro dollar is now sliding to support as London reopens after a holiday. European banking troubles, Greek bailout issues and a softer tone from Trichet on inflation are the main reasons for this slump. The pair is still high. Important US data lies ahead.

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.

Read the rest of the article EUR/USD Sliding to Support As Londoners Return


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AUD 60min chart 2011-08-29

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Forex Trades 08/30 - European session

Forex Forum


Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.


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|FXReturn.com|New York Forex Market Call 8-29-11|

Forex Forum


View RSS Feed by on Yesterday at 09:26 AM (28 Views)

Welcome to the FXReturn.com New York Market Call for August 29th.,2011. DOW: 35 minutes into the open of Wall Street trading the Dow is up triple digits and above the 10 day average which resides at 11,186. Consecutive closes above the 10 day average will keep the bullish posture of the market intact with 11,528 then 11,835 as the next upside objectives. A close, however, below 11,186 will encourage a wave of selling down to 10,448. Stochastics are recognizing a positive crossover formation which is suggesting continued strength in the Dow over the next few trading sessions | EUR/USD: Trading mid-range on the session and above the 10 day average which resides at 1.4420. Consecutive closes above the 10 day average will keep the bullish posture of the market intact with 1.4576 as the next upside objective. A close, however, below 1.4330 will encourage a wave of selling down to pivot support at 1.4054. Stochastics are showing a positive crossover formation suggesting more upside price activity is on the horizon | DailyFX Forum visitors can sign up for our FREE Live Interactive Webinars and Live Trading Room at FXReturn.com as well as review our latest TON: Trade On News Plans for the upcoming week. Please click the following link to view our daily research: NewYorkMarketCallCreated with Camtasia Studio 5
Join DateOct 2009Posts0Blog Entries442Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.


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Gold & Silver - Daily Outlook August 29

Gold and silver acted very unstable during last week as they sharply fell on Wednesday following the recent CME margin hike on gold trading, but soon after they have rallied. What is next for gold and silver this week? Today, the current president of ECB - Trichet will give a speech; the U.S. pending home sales will be published.
For the complete report on gold and silver prices outlook

Gold and silver finished the week on a rise: Gold rose on Friday by 1.93% to $1,797; silver also inclined by 0.51% to $41.00. During August, gold increased by 10.2%, and silver by 2.2%. The chart below shows the development of the normalized gold and silver (July 29th 2011=100) during August.


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Selasa, 06 September 2011

JPY 30min chart 2011-08-26

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US Consumer Spending Posts Five-Month High

U.S. consumer spending rose to a five-month high in July as auto sales rose sharply providing some evidence that the economy continues to defy those suggesting a recession is inevitable. According to the Commerce Department, consumer spending rose 0.8 percent in July after a 0.1 percent decline the month before.

Source: Reuters


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Risk Demand Pushes Canadian Dollar to 3-Week High

The Canadian dollar – nicknamed the “loonie” – broke a three-week high against its U.S. counterpart as speculation drove commodity prices higher on a greater expectation of a U.S. recovery. About 75 percent of Canada’s exports find their way to the U.S. market and positive growth signs in the U.S. tends to mean higher export sales and a boost to the Canadian economy.

“Bernanke gave the market a little bit of calm and confidence, and obviously that’s carried over,” said Steve Butler, managing director of foreign-exchange trading at Bank of Nova Scotia’s Scotia Capital, in Toronto. “It looks like we’re going to get a good start to the week. It’s just a matter of time before we turn the corner.”

The Canadian currency advanced 0.5 percent to 97.68 cents per U.S. dollar at 8:09 a.m. in Toronto, from 98.13 cents on Aug. 26. It appreciated earlier today to 97.57 cents, the strongest level since Aug. 5. One Canadian dollar buys $1.0235.

Source: Bloomberg


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Bigger Punch Irene or Bernanke?

Bernanke is unlikely to announce any new easing initiatives at todays ‘market hyped’ gathering in Jackson Hole. Dallas Fed Fisher has already stated this week that the Fed has no intention of announcing ‘some magical new policy’. Besides, others note that this market environment is ‘not the time for adventurism, it requires stability’. Investors can expect Ben to reiterate what he said in the past regarding the options that are still open to the Fed (paying interest on reserves, reinvestment of interest from their portfolio and increase duration). In other words, repeat and rehash his last communique. If he conveys that there is absolutely no way the Fed will allow the US economy to deteriorate, and that they will use all policy tools at their disposal, then it will be risk-on and the dollar to weaken, again. The window of opportunity to maximize the bang for your buck will probably only be a few hours as some investors make haste and vacate New York ahead of Hurricane Irene.

The US$ is weaker in the O/N trading session. Currently, it is lower against 14 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘tight’ trading session.

Forex heatmap

This skittish market was more concerned about acquiring anything toxic ahead of Bernanke’s over hyped speech today than yesterday’s disappointing US weekly claims data. The number of new claims climbed higher by +5k to a seasonally adjusted +417k. Adding further disappointment was the prior week’s release being revised up by +4k to +412k. The unexpected gain was fueled in part by a labor dispute at Verizon (+45k went on strike).

Digging deeper, the four-week moving average, which smoothes some of the volatility increased by +4k to +407.5k. The headline print offers little hope for improvement in the short term for the US job market. The recent trend remains elevated, moving further away from the psychological +400k where below analysts believe that the market is creating job. On the flip side, the data excluding the Verizon labor dispute shows that companies are slowing the pace of firings, which may ease concern that consumers will cut back on spending. However, the unemployment rates of +9.1% remains a psychological hurdle. The number of continuing claims fell by-80k to +3.64m (one week lag reporting) and the unemployment rate for individuals with UI was +2.9%, down from +3%. Analysts are estimating that August Payrolls grew by about +95k.

The dollar is lower against the EUR +0.48%, GBP +0.28%, CHF +0.17% and JPY +0.63%. The commodity currencies are stronger this morning, CAD +0.20% and AUD +0.68%.

There is no denying it, the commodity growth sensitive currency, the loonie, remains range bound. It’s movements are been dictated to by the risk loving and risk aversion trading strategies that are positioning most portfolios ahead of Ben’s highly ‘over’ anticipated speech in Jackson Hole today. Yesterday, the loonie managed to trade to intraday high as investors sought a refuge in currencies of countries that rely on natural resources for economic growth. However, risk aversion spurred by EU regulators extending bans on equity short-selling to prevent the region’s sovereign-debt crisis from worsening had investors again lightening up on their growth and interest rate sensitive basket.

Outlook for the Canadian economy has come under serious scrutiny over the past few weeks. Governor Carney says second-quarter growth is likely to be flat or down slightly. It was only a month ago they had forecasted growth of +1.5% on an annualized basis in the quarter. Parity looms again for the loonie on fears about the stability of the European banking system and on the back of weaker data from its largest trading partner. Technically, the currency needs to fill in that gap. The loonie has dropped –4.1% so far this month, as global equities remain on the back foot. Investors are better buyers of dollars on dips (0.9863).

The Aussie printed a two-week high o/n against the yen after RBA governor Stevens said inflation ‘bears careful watching’, easing speculation that policy makers would cut rates any time soon in a speech to the House of Representatives Standing Committee. Futures dealers reduced their expectation for RBA rate cuts over the next year by-7bp to +126bp. He acknowledged the ‘heightened’ degree of uncertainty offshore, but again, highlighted the impact from the improvement in the terms of trade on income keeping inflationary pressures elevated. Importantly, Stevens discounted concerns over bank funding. He has also commented on how Australia’s corporate, household and Government balance sheets are strengthening. Although the Governor stating that the currency at 1.10 is ‘getting ahead of itself’, he said that intervention would have been futile. Big picture, the Aussie remains vulnerable to bouts of renewed global stress. Many now expect the RBA to remain on hold for the remainder of the year, as ‘risks for policy makers have become more evenly balanced and the outlook remains conditional on the strength of the global economy’. Currently, investors are better sellers of the currency on rallies (1.0504).

Crude is lower in the O/N session ($84.95 down-0.35c). Crude prices rallied to a weekly high yesterday on speculation that Ben and Co. would announce new measures to stimulate the economy, and after US weekly supplies declined as refinery rates matched their highest level for 2011.

Oil stockpiles fell -2.21m barrels to +351.7m last week. The market had been anticipating a build of inventories of +800k barrels. Crude imports fell-477k barrels per day to +8.77m. Also of note, data released by the IEA shows that the US SPR supply fell -4.8m barrels last week. On the flip-side, gas inventories rallied +1.36m barrels to +211.4m. Analysts had been expecting a-1m barrel decline. Average gas demand in the last four-weeks fell -2.4% from a year ago. Finally, distillates (heating oil and diesel), rose +1.73m barrels to +155.7m, more than the forecasted rise of +700k barrels. Refinery utilization rose +1.2% to +90.3% of capacity.

The report is bullish for crude and bearish for the products. For the moment, Crude prices continue to hold just above strong support levels, supported by Libya, exclude them from the equation and the commodity remains vulnerable. The Fed’s monetary policy will be bearish for the dollar and so should be bullish for crude in the longer term. The market now waits for Ben to re-enforce the Fed’s intentions.

Gold extended its biggest slump in three-years yesterday as investor demand diminished after a rally to a new record this week. From a technical perspective this is a normal correction given the magnitude of this months move. The weak long investors have been tapping the market and taking some profit off the table on speculation that financial markets may be stabilizing, eroding the appeal of the precious metal as a safer haven. The commodity has lost over 8% in the past three-days, that’s equal to all of the last two week gains. Technically it’s a crowded trade that investors wished to pare on expectations Bernanke will do something to boost equity prices today. This morning we see small traction in commodity prices, bouncing from this weeks lows.

Before this week’s carnage, the commodity trade was up +31%, y/d, as the global debt crises and volatile stock markets boosted the appeal of the metal as an alternative asset. A hike in margin requirements for gold forwards in Shanghai is also helping to curb the precious metal’s meteoric rise. This is a similar move to the COMEX margin hike of +22% earlier in the month.

Big picture, with the Fed’s efforts to drive interest rates lower to support lending should curtail the dollar’s appeal and by default, support commodities eventually. The commodity is heading for its eleventh consecutive annual gain ($1,788+$24).

The Nikkei closed at 8,797 up+25. The DAX index in Europe was at 5,507 down-76; the FTSE (UK) currently is 5,095 down-35. The early call for the open of key US indices is lower. The US 10-year eased 5bp yesterday (2.22%) and is little changed in the O/N session.

Yields on shorter term treasuries remain rooted to their record lows amid speculation that the Fed will signal later this morning that policy makers are willing to take further measures to prevent the US from falling back into a recession. On out the US curve, treasury prices rose as global equities slumped and as US weekly claims unexpectedly increased last week, fueling concern the economic recovery is slowing and stoking demand for debt again.10-year yields remain range bound +2.35-2.03%.

A disappointing result from Bernanke this morning should push the US yield curve to continue to trend lower as money is forced to seek yields that are further out the curve. With 2’s tied to o/n funds the only way for the curve to steepen (normal curve) is through higher inflation expectations.

This week the market has been focusing on the demand for US product as yields fall to new record lows. The US treasury issued $99b of new notes supply and the demand for 2’s and 5’s were strong and printed record low yields. Yesterday’s 7-year sale was decent. The issue was offered at +1.58%, the lowest yields since the notes were reintroduction in 2009. The bid-to-cover ratio was +2.76, compared with the average of +2.78. The indirect bid was +51.7%, highest in eight-months, compared to the average of +39.6%. Now we all wait!

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