Following a week marked by weak volume at some points and immense volatility at others, the last week of August looks to provide more the same as the economic docket is packed with historically market moving events. Significant data from across the G-7 countries are due over the course of the week, culminating in a critical labor market report for the world’s largest economy. EUR GermanConsumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG P): August 29 – --:-- GMT The recent period of relatively higher interest rates set forth by the European Central Bank has certainly alleviated price pressures in the Euro-zone’s largest economy, with an expected consumer price index reading to show the first month of deflation since January. The -0.1 percent month-over-month reading for August, as forecasted, according to a Bloomberg News survey, would bring the yearly figure down to 2.3 percent. With inflation under control, and price pressures starting to abate, coupled with the fact that Europe appears to be on edge of not only a complete financial meltdown, but also another recession as the periphery countries have started to experience sharp declines in growth following recent austerity measures, the European Central Bank could be poised to slash rates in the near future. The markets have already begun to price this scenario in, with the Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps showing that -26.2-basis points are priced in over the next 12-months. Join a DailyFX analyst for live coverage of event! USD Consumer Confidence (AUG): August 30 – 14:00 GMT Consumer confidence is expected to remain below 60.0, after falling back below the key level in June. July’s reading was slightly improved at 59.5, but not a significant increase to suggest that confidence has started to rebound, especially considering the forecast number, 52.0, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The recent string of disappointing data out of the United States, including disparaging labor market data, a grueling debt ceiling debate that divided the country politically, and a recent turn lower in equity markets is likely to continue to weigh on sentiment for a considerable amount of time as there are few signs of optimism. The worsening debt crisis in Europe is likely to have an increasing effect on consumer confidence, in a ‘trickle-down’ sort of way; as equity markets continue to head lower on contagion concerns, sentiment will deteriorate, despite the fact that the influence is mostly exogenous.Join a DailyFX analyst for live coverage of event! CAD Gross Domestic Product Annualized (2Q): August 31 – 12:30 GMT Canadian gross domestic product data has tailed-off, with last month’s growth rate falling to a paltry -0.3 percent pace. The negative growth is expected to be reflected in the next release, on Wednesday, when the quarterly figure, on an annualized basis, is expected to show no change – flat growth at 0.0 percent, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Despite economic data out of the world’s eleventh largest economy, and a considerably weakening Canadian Dollar as risk-aversion has picked up on slowed global growth concerns as well as the European sovereign debt crisis, it appears that the global slowdown is weighing on Canada. Still, with an improving labor market – the Canadian economy is the only major economy to have regained and added jobs since the recession – Canada is insulated, for the time being, from the financial storm that is starting to gather. Join a DailyFX analyst for live coverage of event! EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (2Q F): September 1 – 06:00 GMT Last month, I wrote “[F]orecasts suggest that second quarter growth in Germany has slowed considerably, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The gross domestic product reading is expected to print at 3.2 percent, on a year-over-year basis. While this is still a very strong reading, it is well below the 5.2 percent growth Germany experienced in the first quarter.” The forecasts were wrong, with the actual reading showing 2.8 percent growth on a yearly basis. That being said, a downward revision is possible, as global growth has slowed, and any further weakening by Europe’s largest economy will bring out the doves, calling for the European Central Bank to cut rates in order to help sustain growth in an eroding economic environment. Join a DailyFX analyst for live coverage of event! USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate (AUG): September 2 – 12:30 GMT According to a Bloomberg survey, economists have forecasted that August data will show an increase of 75K in U.S. nonfarm payrolls figure, the American index of the labor market. The July figure came in at a disappointing117K print, despite beating expectations. A slew of disappointing data releases over the past month coupled with economists largely missing the target on this indicator recently suggests that another miss on the data is possible.Accordingly, economists expect the rate to remain at 9.1 percent. Last month, the unemployment rate dropped to 9.1 percentbeating economists forecast that the rate would hold at 9.0 percent. Confidence remains low as the labor market fails to recover; this data release is the most important event on the economic docket the coming week.Join a DailyFX analyst for live coverage of event! See the DailyFX Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst To contact the author of this report, please send inquiries to: cvecchio@dailyfx.com Follow Christopher Vecchio on Twitter: @CVecchioFX
Get a feel for live trading
Trade Simulator Download here
Related Posts : Horizon,
Minutes,
Nonfarm,
Payrolls
0 Responses: Fed Minutes, Nonfarm Payrolls on the Horizon
Posting Komentar