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Jumat, 02 September 2011

U.S. Dollar Gains After Disappointing GDP, Falls Ahead of Bernanke

By Christopher Vecchio, Junior Currency Analyst 26 August 2011 13:48 GMT Fundamental Headlines

• Bernanke Scholar Advises Bernanke Fed Chief – Bloomberg

• S&P Pushes Back at Blame for Rating Turmoil – Bloomberg

• Fed Policymaker says QE is ‘Most Potent Weapon’ – Financial Times

• Kan Exit Opens Way for New Japan PM – Financial Times

• Greece Sets Out Conditions for Bond Swap – WSJ

Pre-North American Session Summary

The risk basket was mixed in the overnight session, with the Japanese Yen as the strongest performing currency and the Swiss Franc as the weakest performing currency, as market participants eagerly awaited Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.

However, ahead of what could be a watershed moment for the Fed Chairman, a slew of disappointing data released at 12:30 GMT suggested that the world’s largest economy was growing at a slowing rate. The second quarter gross domestic product revision showed that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.0 percent pace, down from the 1.3 percent originally reported growth figure. The print was below the 1.1 percent expectation, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The USD/CAD had the most extreme reaction to the data release, climbing approximately 40-pips on the news.

USD/CAD 1-minute Chart: August 26, 2011

U.S._Dollar_Gains_After_Disappointing_GDP_Falls_Ahead_of_Bernanke_body_Picture_1.png, U.S. Dollar Gains After Disappointing GDP, Falls Ahead of Bernanke Charts created using Strategy Trader– Prepared by Christopher Vecchio

The economic and political climates have deteriorated to a seemingly offensive level to most Americans at this point, as confidence readings and empirical evidence point towards another recession in the United States. Inventories are dropping, not because of increased demand, but due to reduced supply. As per the recent consumer price index print, price pressures have risen to 3.6 percent in July, on a year-over-year basis. Consumer confidence in August hit its lowest level since March 2009, the bottom in equity markets.

USD GDP (QoQ) Annualized: March 2005 to Present

U.S._Dollar_Gains_After_Disappointing_GDP_Falls_Ahead_of_Bernanke_body_usgdp2q.jpg, U.S. Dollar Gains After Disappointing GDP, Falls Ahead of Bernanke Prepared by Christopher Vecchio

Today, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, world leaders have gathered at the Federal Reserve’s annual. Economic Policy Symposium, an event the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City describes “a forum for central bankers, policy experts and academics to come together to focus on a topic that is not necessarily of immediate concern, but instead looks into the future at emerging issues and trends.” This limited description of the event is misleading, however, considering the state of global economic affairs.

Any hints of a third round of quantitative easing – or lack thereof – will determine the fate of the U.S. Dollar for an indefinite period of time. With risk-appetite climbing slightly again today, as noted by rallies by the commodity currencies and global equity markets, it appears a form of easing is being priced in – perhaps too ambitiously. After last year’s speech by Chairman Bernanke that further easing was a policy option, the Dollar slid drastically, and has been the world’s worst performing major currency since Chairman Bernanke’s speech last August.

24-Hour Price Action

U.S._Dollar_Gains_After_Disappointing_GDP_Falls_Ahead_of_Bernanke_body_Picture_4.png, U.S. Dollar Gains After Disappointing GDP, Falls Ahead of BernankeU.S._Dollar_Gains_After_Disappointing_GDP_Falls_Ahead_of_Bernanke_body_Picture_5.png, U.S. Dollar Gains After Disappointing GDP, Falls Ahead of Bernanke Key Levels: 13:30 GMT

U.S._Dollar_Gains_After_Disappointing_GDP_Falls_Ahead_of_Bernanke_body_Picture_6.png, U.S. Dollar Gains After Disappointing GDP, Falls Ahead of Bernanke Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact the author of this report, please send inquiries to: cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow Christopher Vecchio on Twitter: @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.

26 August 2011 13:48 GMT


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