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Senin, 05 September 2011

U.S. Dollar Sell-Off Continues Ahead of Key Speeches by Bernanke, Trichet

Fundamental Headlines

• Bernanke May Forgo Easing as Data Point Higher – Bloomberg

• Gold Extends Biggest Slump in 18 Months – Bloomberg

• U.S. Budget Watchdog Cuts Debt Forecast – Financial Times

• Contours of Obama Jobs Package Coming into Focus – Reuters

• Jobless Claims Rise – WSJ

European Session Summary

The Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and U.S. Dollar were the three weakest currencies in the overnight session as the market continued to price in what looks to be a third round of quantitative easing, a policy measure that will purportedly be announced tomorrow. With the global economy slowing, as evidenced by significantly more negative data than positive data in recent weeks, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech tomorrow at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium has catapulted itself into the spotlight as this week’s key event.

Tomorrow, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, world leaders with gather at the Federal Reserve’s annual Economic Policy Symposium, an event the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City describes “a forum for central bankers, policy experts and academics to come together to focus on a topic that is not necessarily of immediate concern, but instead looks into the future at emerging issues and trends.” This limited description of the event is misleading, however, considering the state of global economic affairs.

AUD/USD 5-minute Chart: August 25, 2011

U.S._Dollar_Sell-Off_Continues_Ahead_of_Key_Speeches_by_Bernanke_Trichet_body_Picture_1.png, U.S. Dollar Sell-Off Continues Ahead of Key Speeches by Bernanke, Trichet Charts created using Strategy Trader– Prepared by Christopher Vecchio

Any hints of a third round of quantitative easing – or lack thereof – will determine the fate of the U.S. Dollar for an indefinite period of time. With risk-appetite climbing slightly again today, as noted by rallies by the commodity currencies and global equity markets, it appears a form of easing is being priced in – perhaps too ambitiously. After last year’s speech by Chairman Bernanke that further easing was a policy option, the Dollar slid drastically, and has been the world’s worst performing major currency since Chairman Bernanke’s speech last August.

As such, the bid for safe havens was fading into Thursday, with the Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar the three strongest currencies on the day, at the time this report was written. The Loonie was the strongest of the riskier assets, as jobs data out of the United States belayed some worries about the labor market in the world’s largest economy.

Pre-North American Session Data

In terms of data ahead of the North American trading session, jobless claims figures out of the United States were once again disappointing, holding above the psychologically significant 400K threshold. The print of 417K beat the 405K projection, according to a Bloomberg News survey, the Labor Department’s report showed on Thursday. However, the increase is being attributed to a labor dispute with one of the United States’ largest communications company. Accordingly, with those employees removed from the claims figures, the jobs data is slightly more appetizing, with the rate at which companies are letting go their employees slowing.

USD Jobless Claims: August 2010 to Present

U.S._Dollar_Sell-Off_Continues_Ahead_of_Key_Speeches_by_Bernanke_Trichet_body_Picture_4.png, U.S. Dollar Sell-Off Continues Ahead of Key Speeches by Bernanke, Trichet Prepared by Christopher Vecchio

Thus far on the day, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar index was slightly higher, despite the sell-off of the safe haven currencies. At the time this report was written, the index was trading at 9489.27, after opening at 9484.90. The index has oscillated between 9498.56, the daily high, and 9467.88, the daily low.

24-Hour Price Action

U.S._Dollar_Sell-Off_Continues_Ahead_of_Key_Speeches_by_Bernanke_Trichet_body_Picture_5.png, U.S. Dollar Sell-Off Continues Ahead of Key Speeches by Bernanke, TrichetU.S._Dollar_Sell-Off_Continues_Ahead_of_Key_Speeches_by_Bernanke_Trichet_body_Picture_6.png, U.S. Dollar Sell-Off Continues Ahead of Key Speeches by Bernanke, Trichet Key Levels: 13:30 GMT

U.S._Dollar_Sell-Off_Continues_Ahead_of_Key_Speeches_by_Bernanke_Trichet_body_Picture_7.png, U.S. Dollar Sell-Off Continues Ahead of Key Speeches by Bernanke, Trichet Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact the author of this report, please send inquiries to: cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow Christopher Vecchio on Twitter: @CVecchioFX


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